Sep 18

Weeks 2-3 Review: Pac-12 Picking the Winners Recap

The second and third weeks of the 2012 college football season featured plenty of surprises. Here’s a quick look back on the past two weeks of Pac-12 action, centered around my 12th Annual Picking the Winners Pac-12 preview, which appeared prior to the season on USCFootball.com. To recap my initial picks:

Week 2=At least I’m not a Buff. Week 3=However, I am a Trojan.

After a shaky second week (7-5) – mainly due to a series of big Pac-12 surprise victories – things returned closer to normal in week three (8-2). Let’s take a look back.

Week 2

If it was possible for Colorado to be more embarrassed than it was after losing to Sac State, they might have accomplished it last weekend in Fresno.

Cal over Southern Utah, 50-31 (picked at 44-10); Oregon over Fresno State, 42-25 (picked at 49-14); Stanford over Duke, 50-13 (picked at 38-13); USC over Syracuse, 42-29 (picked at 41-20); LSU over Washington, 41-3 (picked at 31-17): While these four were winners, all by predicted double-digit margins, I only came within 10 points of the final spread on the Trojans’ sloppy victory over the Orange. On the other hand, the Huskies did the conference no favors by laying a massive egg in already provincial SEC-land. My other two wins, Arizona State’s 45-14 whipping of Illinois and Washington State’s too-close-for-comfort 24-20 win over FCS Eastern Washington, were flip-flopped from predictions (I had ASU tight and WSU big).

Two of my five losses were pretty disappointing for the conference. Utah’s horrific performance in a 27-20 loss at Utah State was only overshadowed by Sacramento State taking down a Pac-12 foe for a second consecutive season in a 30-28 win over Colorado (the Hornets toppled Oregon State in 2011).

UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin has been spectacular through three games.

The other three losses in week two were all Pac-12 upsets that gained the conference some national respect. As I said in my preview, before picking Nebraska in a close one against UCLA, “this type of game – early September, traditional football power opponent, at the Rose Bowl – has been when the Bruins play their best.” That they did, notching a 36-30 upset. Arizona gained a measure of revenge for a pair of blowout losses to Oklahoma State the past two seasons by hammering the Cowboys, 59-38, in Tucson – and also serving notice that the Rich Rodriguez Regime is truly underway. And Oregon State, opening its season after the postponement of a Sept. 1 game vs. Nicholls State, stunned two-time defending Big 10 champion Wisconsin, 10-7.

Week 3

Washington over Portland State, 52-13 (picked at 56-10); Oregon over Tennessee Tech, 63-14 (picked at 69-6); UCLA over Houston, 37-6 (picked at 34-14): It’s always intriguing to me to see how close my picks come in games with an overwhelming favorite. In week three, I did pretty well in the Huskies’ and Ducks’ victories over FCS foes, as well as in UCLA’s win over Houston. Not so impressive were my picks in a couple of other victories that also appeared to be lopsided. I underestimated Arizona’s firepower, picking them only by 27 in an eventual 56-0 win over FCS South Carolina State. In reverse, Washington State’s closer-than-expected 35-27 win at UNLV was far less than the three-TD win I’d called for.

I’m not sure if this is right before the second or third time Ute fans stormed the field against BYU.

My other victories included a pair of hard fought losses for the conference. I picked Ohio State to whip Cal by 18. The Bears fought hard, dropping a 35-28 decision. I also picked Missouri to notch a 10-point revenge victory for last season’s loss in Tempe, but the Sun Devils rallied to make it close before losing, 24-20. I also had Utah over BYU, 31-21 – not the craziest call in the Utes’ eventual (and, by eventual, I mean Utah fans rushed the field three times before the game was officially over) 24-21 win.

This was a familiar site on the Farm last Saturday.

Speaking of rushing the field, it’s time to wonder when Stanford’s fans will come to expect a win against USC as their coaches and players seem to? The Cardinal’s fourth consecutive win in the series, 21-14 in Palo Alto, was an upset – sure (I had USC, 38-27, in my preseason picks). But, No. 16 beating No. 3 in an ugly, error-filled early season game sure didn’t seem like a rush-the-field moment. My other Week 3 loss featured, unsurprisingly at this point, Colorado. What was surprising was the score: a lower-divisionesque 69-14 loss to Fresno State. The Buffs will have to pull off one heck of an upset during conference play to avoid an 0-12 season.

Record through three weeks: 24-9

Enjoy this weekend’s games!

Sep 07

Week 1 Review: Pac-12 Picking the Winners Recap

As we close in on week 2 of the college football season, here’s a quick look back on Week 1 of Pac-12 action, centered around my 12th Annual Picking the Winners Pac-12 preview, which appeared last week on USCFootball.com:

Click here for wisdom.

I kicked off the season with a 9-2 weekend (plus an abstention from Nicholls State, which was unable to avoid Hurricane Isaac and travel to face the Mighty Beav in Corvallis). Who was up? Who was down? And who was an ultimate disappointment?

Marqise Lee took Matt Barkley’s first 2012 toss 75 yards for a score.

USC over Hawaii, 49-10 (picked at 49-13) and Utah over Northern Colorado, 41-0 (picked at 38-0): Obviously my two best picks of the week, though I was helped by some dropped USC passes to keep the Trojans under 50.Other decent calls included Oregon over Arky State, 57-34 (in a game that I picked 52-10 Ducks, but UO led 50-3 in the second quarter before pumping the brakes). Oregon wowed a lot of people with their early outburst. Was the second half defensive lapse indicative of some depth issues? You’d have to be reading an awful lot into it to reach that conclusion. I also had UCLA topping Rice by 21, but in a much lower scoring game than the Bruins’ eventual 49-24 win. Even if it was against a horrific Owl program, Bruin fans had to be heartened by QB Brett Hundley’s first performance.

Surprises and disappointments that still worked out ok? How about Wazzu’s ugly performance in a 30-6 loss at BYU. In picking a narrow BYU win, I definitely expected more from Mike Leach in his first game. Obviously, he and the Cougs have a ways to go. In opposition, Todd Graham’s debut in Tempe went far better than expected as the Sun Devils put the hammer to FCS foe Northern Arizona, 63-6. At the same time, Stanford narrowly avoided catastrophe (to channel chronic overstater and Olympic gymnastics “commentator” Tim Daggett) in a 20-17 Friday night fright against San Jose State. Think

DeAnthony Thomas was up to his old tricks in Oregon’s whipping of Arkansas State.

Andrew Luck meant much to the Cardinal?

Also too close for comfort was UW’s 21-12 decision in Seattle over San Diego State. The Huskies’ high-powered attack more closely resembled a late-90s Paul Hackett USC offense. At the same time, the statistics showed an absolute blowout in favor of Arizona over Toledo, but some missed opportunities (and field goals) forced the Wildcats into overtime before they notched a 24-17 win.

Oski wasn’t the only one to leave the new Memorial Stadium deflated.

Finally, my two losses: Colorado dropping a 22-17 decision to in-state rival Colorado State in their annual Denver showdown; and California bellyflopping in the debut of the newly refurbished Memorial Stadium, losing to Nevada 31-24. While CU’s loss isn’t overly shocking – this wasn’t a good football team last year and it won’t be this year – Cal’s Jeff Tedford absolutely must be on the firing line after the Bears’ embarrassing performance. As time goes on, it seems like Tedford loses more and more touch with his players. While Cal should recover easily this weekend, the same can’t be said for most of the rest of 2012.

Enjoy this weekend’s games!

Oct 26

Midseason Musings Around the Pac-12

We’ve essentially reached the midway point of the Pac-12 conference schedule. There have been plenty of highlights, plenty of pratfalls and a helluva lot of entertaining football. Before we turn the corner and head for home, let’s take a look – from top to bottom – at where we stand heading into Halloween weekend:

  • Just how good is Stanford? While many people mocked my pick of Stanford finishing the regular season and conference title game with a perfect 13-0 mark, it seems many of those same folks now suddenly realize the Cardinal have an incredibly generous schedule – the main reason for my choice. If Stanford passes what suddenly appears to be a real test this weekend at USC, all that really stands between them and hosting the inaugural championship game is a Nov. 12 date with Oregon in Palo Alto.
  • While Andrew Luck has maintained his edge in the Heisman Trophy race, it’s been the continuity David Shaw has brought to the program – toughness, an excellent rushing game, an attacking defense – that has the Cardinal in this position. It will be interesting to see how that translates without Luck in 2012. Will Stanford maintain its level or will it fall back to the conference’s lower division, where it has resided for most of the past 40 years.
  • Oregon’s offense continues to roll, even with LaMichael James and Darron Thomas missing games due to injury. A pair of freshmen, QB Bryan Bennett and RB/WR DeAnthony Thomas, look ready to carry Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense well into this decade. Whether that’s good for the conference in the long run will be decided by whether the Ducks can actually make a case for their style of football in a key non-conference game or two.
  • Another positive – it was refreshing to see the Ducks in what appeared to be actual football uniforms last Saturday in Colorado.

    Oregon dressed up as a football team last Saturday.

  • In the Pac-12 South, it appears the only thing between Arizona State and a Pac-12 title game appearance is disinterest. The Sun Devils’ only game remaining against a team with a record currently above .500 is their season-closer against Cal on Nov. 25. Prior to that, the schedule reads: Colorado (1-7), at UCLA (3-4), at Washington State (3-4), Arizona (2-5).
  • Unfortunately for ASU, their propensity for penalties, combined with Pac-12 officials’ general incompetence, does make the Devils ripe for an upset should any of those four games remain close late. Just ask ASU’s fans about some of the curious calls that happened in Eugene a couple weekends back.
  • USC and its fans are walking on air after the Trojans’ 31-17 drubbing of Notre Dame last weekend. Notre Dame and its fans seemed offended at Lane Kiffin’s insinuation last week that this game was the Irish’s “Super Bowl.” However, with the pomp and circumstance surrounding the game (first night game in 21 years, new helmet paint, rally towels, nearly two dozen key recruits on the sidelines, the East Coast media drooling over the possibility that ND could not only win but cover the ridiculous 9-point spread), it’s hard to see where Kiffin was wrong.

    Jawanza Starling’s third-quarter fumble return was the turning point in USC’s victory at Notre Dame.

  • It’s also hard to see where any of the Trojans who said the Irish quit on the game are wrong. Now, USC hosts Stanford on Saturday with a shot to ruin the Cardinal’s shot at a national title. It’s quite a tall task, even for a team that is unexpectedly 6-1 and just played its most complete game during the Kiffin regime. Nonetheless, it’s amusing to see ESPN Gameday back at the Coliseum even though the “Worldwide Leader” has done everything possible to play up the “death of USC” during the past 24 months.
  • Washington made its first appearance in the top-25 in almost a decade. Then, the Huskies immediately were embarrassed on national TV, 65-21, by Stanford – allowing a school-record 446 rushing yards to the Cardinal.
  • Still, despite the struggles of Nick Holt’s Husky defense, it’s hard to dispute the progress Washington has made this season. QB Keith Price has been spectacular, and an 8-win season is within reach – something that might have seemed a pipe dream  just two years ago.
  • Jeff Tedford’s Cal team is its usual Jekyll-and-Hyde self. The Bears could not have looked worse for six quarters after taking a 15-14 halftime lead into the locker room at Oregon on Oct. 6. In the next game and a half, Oregon and USC outscored Cal 59-9, and the Bears could do almost nothing right. Then, last Saturday, the Bears went to Salt Lake City and dominated Utah, 34-10.
  • Which Cal team will show up in the Rose Bowl Saturday?
  • The answer to that question will probably be decided in part by just how much UCLA is affected by its utterly embarrassing performance in a 48-12 loss at Arizona last week. Rumblings out of Westwood make it sound like the team is split and that Rick Neuheisel’s continued presence on the sideline is a key to the problems.
  • Of course, falling behind 42-7 to Arizona before halftime – that’s the same Arizona team that entered the game with a 1-5 record and an interim head coach after firing Mike Stoops – and then starting a bench-clearing brawl with two seconds to go in the half (yes, starting – Taylor Embree threw the first punch in a melee that ended with six Bruins and four Wildcats suspended) might be a fairly decent sign of a team that’s disinterested in its coach and the rest of its season.
  • If there’s been a bright spot for Oregon State in what’s been a very difficult season, it has to be the development of QB Sean Mannion. He was Pac-12 offensive player of the week last Saturday in the Beavers’ 44-24 whipping of Washington State.
  • Still, the Beavers’ losses to Sacramento State, BYU and UCLA have doomed them to consecutive bowl-free seasons – a difficult blast from the past for those in Corvallis who’ve grown used to post-season football in the past decade.
  • After starting 3-1 and dreaming of a bowl bid, Washington State has fallen back to earth in three straight losses, with the hammering by the Beavers seemingly resigning Wazzu to another losing season.
  • With Jeff Tuel and Marshall Loebbestal, Coach Paul Wulff reminds me of a fantasy football owner has two talented passers whom he can’t decide between – and then the one he picks to start in a given week either underperforms or gets injured.

    Uh oh, looks like no points from my QB this week. Fantasy sucks!

  • Well, Arizona certainly looked like they hooked up to the Juvenation Machine last week, didn’t they? But, at 2-5 (and 1-4 in the conference) the rest of 2012 is just about finding a way to build some sort of momentum going forward. And not every opponent is going to be as baffled about its identity as UCLA.
  • I guess Utah is finding out what playing the big boys every week – and suffering a series of debilitating injuries as you go – is all about. However, hearing calls for Kyle Whittingham’s head (as faint as they may be) is absolutely ridiculous. I fully expect that when Utah gets its bearings (and gets healthy), the Utes will be a factor in the South Division for years to come.
  • Colorado, well … hmm. Not exactly making a statement for how deep the Big 12 has been recently. And if Coach Jon Embree didn’t have enough to worry about, his son – previously mentioned UCLA wideout Taylor Embree – decided punching someone on the football field would be a bright idea. When it gets so bad that you’re tied to the acts of players on another team in your conference then go out and get stomped, 45-2, on your own field two days later, well … that’s 2011 Colorado Football. Here’s Colorado’s highlight from October: Cliff Harris goes 118 mph into a safety on a punt return.
  • Finally, this isn’t a Pac-12 related note. But, it is the best college football-related “separated at birth” I’ve come up with recently:
Boise State QB Kellen Moore

South Park, Colo., youth Jimmy Valmer

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