Jan 10

Recapping My 2014 USC/Pac-12 Coverage and Picks

Enjoying a USC rally at Quincy Market in Boston, a day before one of my worst picks of 2014.

Enjoying a USC rally in Boston, a day before one of my worst picks of 2014.

With Monday’s College Football Championship game marking the end of the 2014 season, last week I began to look back at some of the content I produced for USCFootball.com, the Scout Network website dedicated to wall-to-wall coverage of USC Trojans football. I’ve done in-season work for the site since 2000, through its three iterations: starting out as an independent start-up; transitioning to become part of the Rivals Network; and, just prior to this season, joining Scout.

This one’s for my loyal football content readers — especially the stat and result geeks. So, be forewarned!

If you’re a reader, you know that — for the 14th consecutive season — I produced my annual Pac-12 preview where I pick a winner and a score for each game played by a conference school, prior to the season. This year’s preview can be found here: 2014 Pac-12 “Picking the Winners” Game-by-Game Preview.

In 2014, I picked winners in 67 of the 92 Pac-12 games played (including Oregon’s win in the Pac-12 Championship game; I had them beating USC, rather than Arizona but it’s crazy what one completed Hail Mary can mean). That 67-25 mark means I predicted 72.8 percent of the games correctly, slightly off from the combined total of my prior 13 seasons: 74.6 percent. It represented a much steeper drop from 2013, when I posted my second-best season ever (81.3 percent), but was still far better than 2012 — my worst season to date (64.1 percent).

Colorado, working hard at justifying my season's picks for them.

Colorado worked hard to justify my 2014 picks.

Digging into the numbers, I found some intriguing notes and trends:

  • My four best records in selecting specific teams’ games included: Oregon (12-1); UCLA (10-2); Colorado (10-2); and Washington (10-3). In a way, you can kind of throw out UO and CU. I picked Oregon to win all 13, so their one loss (to Arizona) was, unsurprisingly, my only incorrect pick. Thanks Ducks! At the other end, I had Colorado winning four total games and one conference game. Turns out, they simply just lost two of the games I picked them to win to fade to a rough 2-10, 0-9 finish. The success with the Bruins and UW was a little more noteworthy. First, the Huskies: I selected their first seven games correctly before a loss to Arizona State ended that run. Two weeks later, UW lost at UCLA — one of my two incorrect Bruin choices. Finally, in August, I thought the Huskies might struggle in the Apple Cup at Pullman — but that was before Wazzu lost quarterback Connor Halliday against USC and limped to a tough finish. Before the season, I picked UW to finish the regular season at 9-4, 5-4; they finished 8-5, 4-5. Aside from the aforementioned defeat of Washington, my only other UCLA error was when the Bruins were shocked at home by Utah. That 10-2 mark — with one incorrect pick on each side of the docket — meant that my prediction for a 9-3, 6-3 UCLA regular season was dead on.
  • The only team that I whiffed on more than I got right in my preseason picks? Utah (5-7). Suffice it to say, I did not believe in the Utes prior to the season’s kickoff. I had them finishing 3-9, 1-8 and tied for last in the Pac-12 South with Colorado. Instead, Utah finished the regular season with an 8-4, 5-4 mark and impressive late wins at UCLA and at home against USC.
  • There was only one other conference team for which I didn’t pick a correct result in either seven or eight contests: Cal (9-3). The Golden Bears bounced back in a big way from a dismal 2013, falling just short of bowl eligibility at 5-7, 3-6 — including tough, close losses at Arizona (49-45 on a game-ending Hail Mary) and at home to UCLA (36-34) and BYU (42-35, in the closing game of the regular season). I picked against Cal in all three, helping my overall success.
  • The 8-4s and 7-5s. As for the rest of my picks, here’s how it broke down by team: Arizona (8-4); Oregon State (8-4); Stanford (8-4); USC (8-4);
    USC's win over Fresno State was one of eight Trojan games I picked correctly in my Pac-12 preview.

    Nelson Agholor for 6. USC’s win over Fresno State was one of eight Trojan games picked correctly in my Pac-12 preview.

    Arizona State (7-5); and Washington State (7-5). Among those teams’ overall records, I whiffed pretty clearly on Arizona (picked 6-6, 3-6; they finished 10-2, 7-2 prior to the championship game and bowl season), Stanford (picked 11-1, 8-1; finished 7-5, 5-4) and Washington State (picked 7-5, 4-5; finished 3-9, 2-7).

  • Eight best single game picks of 2014

    • Sept. 6: I picked Oregon over Michigan State by 17 — 38-21. The final margin: 19, in a 46-27 victory.
    • Sept. 13: I picked Arizona State over Colorado, 38-24. The actual final score? Yep, 38-24.
    • Sept. 27: I picked Cal to beat Colorado by a field goal in overtime (37-34). The result? A higher scoring game with the same outcome: Cal by a field goal in OT, 59-56.
    • Sept. 27: I picked Stanford to edge Washington, 20-16, just off from the real result: Stanford 20, Washington 13.
    • Sept. 27 (good week, huh?): I selected USC to defeat Oregon State by 22 (45-23). The Trojans won by 25 (35-10).
    • Sept. 27 (yep, again): I picked Washington State over Utah by three (38-35). The Cougs won, 28-27. Suffice it to say, with how both teams’ seasons went — and my acumen in picking them — this might be the most shocking of the “best” picks listed.
    • Oct. 11: Oregon beat UCLA, 42-30, in Pasadena. Prior to the season, I’d selected the Ducks as 44-35 victors.
    • Oct. 11: I selected Stanford to beat Washington State by 17 (41-24). The Cardinal did, in fact, beat the Cougars by 17 (34-17)
  • Eight worst single game picks of 2014

    • Sept. 20: Yep, I underestimated Utah — and probably gave good old Brady Hoke a tad too much credit. The pick: Michigan 35-23. The reality: Utah 26-10  — a 28-point differential.
    • Oct. 2: I lost one Oregon game all season — and it was a doozy. I picked the Ducks by 30 over Arizona, making the Wildcats’ 31-24 win my third worst point differential this season: 37. Guess I should have saved the 30-point win call for the conference title game.
    • Oct. 4: My miscalculation of the Cougars’ progress under Mike Leach resonated in a big way when Cal upended Wazzu 60-59. My preseason pick: Washington State, 52-24. Ugh.
    • Oct. 4 (yes, this weekend was the payback for the great Sept. 27): One of my two incorrect UCLA picks was almost as rough as that Oregon miscue above. I picked the Bruins to top Utah by 31. But the Utes had other ideas, winning 30-28.
    • Oct. 25: By the time this game happened, the outcome wasn’t much of a surprise. But, since I’d picked the Cougs (again) to beat Arizona by six, the Wildcats’ 22-point drubbing lands on this list.
    • Nov. 1: The pick: Oregon State 51, Cal 27. The reality: Cal 45, Oregon State 31. That’s right, this game’s No. 2 on my worst point differential chart at 38.
    • Nov. 15: Stanford looked to be a solid choice against the Utes prior to the season — as did many others. About a 31-point pick. So, of course, the Utes won by 3 in double OT.
    • Nov. 22: Saving the worst for last in a couple of ways! One of the few times I actually picked the Utes prior to the season — by a touchdown over Arizona — what do they do? How about go out and lose at home, 42-10? Sure, why not! Utah was my kryptonite in 2014, even when I picked them to win. In this one, they were responsible for my single worst point differential of the season: 39.

***

Adoree Jackson was still a blur, even to my best camera and lens, on his receiving TD in the Holiday Bowl.

Adoree Jackson was still a blur, even to my best camera and lens, on his receiving TD in the Holiday Bowl.

Additionally, I handle USCFootball.com‘s official weekly game and opponent previews throughout the season. The Trojans survived the final season of sanction-hampered personnel, finishing with a 9-4 mark (6-3 in the Pac-12 South, good for a second-place tie) — including big road wins at Stanford and Arizona, as well as a dominant victory over rival Notre Dame and a Holiday Bowl win over a game Nebraska squad in a thriller. “A thriller” became perhaps too familiar a description for many USC fans in 2014. Not only did USC hold off Stanford, Arizona and Nebraska in the final moments, but they were also victimized by those “thrills,” losing twice in the waning seconds — at home, on a final-play Hail Mary against Arizona State and at Utah on a Utes drive that was capped by a one-yard TD pass with eight seconds to play.

Those losses plus a truly baffling and unacceptable upset loss at Boston College in week three and a throttling at the hands of crosstown rival UCLA kept the Trojans’ season from being a “total success,” as contended by Coach Steve Sarkisian. However, given USC’s dwindling number of available scholarship players throughout the season, there is hope for the future as the Trojans begin to restock with their first full scholarship class since 2011 set to sign on Feb. 4. And if you believe what you’re reading on USCFootball.com, that class could be something else.

Here are links to each of my USC game previews for 2014:

August 30: (15) USC vs. Fresno State

My preview pick of the Trojans by 4 over the Cardinal was nearly dead on.

My preview pick of the Trojans by 4 over the Cardinal was nearly dead on.

September 6: (14) USC @ (13/10) Stanford

September 13: (9/10) USC @ Boston College

September 27: (18/22) USC vs. Oregon State

October 4: (16/20) USC vs. (24) Arizona State

October 11: USC @ (10/13) Arizona

October 18: (22/25) USC vs. Colorado

October 25: (20/21) USC @ (19) Utah

November 1: USC @Washington State

November 13: USC vs. California

November 22: (19/24) USC @ (9/11) UCLA

November 29: USC vs. Notre Dame

December 27: (24) USC vs. (25) Nebraska, Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Taking a look at my record with the picks in these week-by-week previews, I finished with eight correct and five incorrect — about right considering the Trojans’ topsy-turvy season.

The crowd reacts as, in the background, George Farmer scores USC's first TD against Notre Dame.

The crowd reacts as, in the background, George Farmer scores against Notre Dame.

Let’s take a look at the misses:

  • I wasn’t alone in thinking the then-No. 9 Trojans would roll at Boston College. That game is still one of the more baffling I’ve attended. USC jumped to a 17-6 lead and looked on its way to the expected blowout before just falling completely flat for about 35 minutes. Ugly.
  • Up next, USC’s embarrassing Hail Mary loss to ASU. Nuff said.
  • The following week, after such a ridiculous defeat, I picked Arizona to beat the Trojans in Tucson. The Wildcats were coming off their big win at Oregon and I expected the momentum on both teams’ sidelines — plus the home field — would be enough for Arizona to come out on top. I will tell you, a small courtyard condo complex in Cambridge, Mass., got an unexpected 1:45 a.m. wake-up call when Cats kicker Casey Skowron shanked an easy game-winning field goal attempt, giving the Trojans the win. I was staying there after attending a wedding in Boston the day before, and I kinda forgot my surroundings (and the reality of the Eastern time zone) for a minute.
  • USC gave a game to Utah. My kryptonite, I tell ya.
  • And, though I smartly picked the Bruins in my Pac-12 preview, I went with my heart in the game-week preview, picking the Trojans to win in Pasadena. Bad call.

The best two picks in the weekly previews: USC by four at Stanford (the Trojans won by 3); and the Trojans by 22 over Colorado (USC won by 28).

The worst two picks in these previews: Obviously, BC (34-point differential) and UCLA (24-point differential).

My closest calls on USC total points in weekly previews: 35 vs. Oregon State (exactly right, as USC scored 35); 42 at Washington State (44); 31 at Arizona (28); 24 at Utah (21).

My closest calls on USC points allowed in weekly previews: 30 vs. Cal (exactly right, as the Bears posted 30); 17 vs. Fresno State (13); and 19 at Utah (24).

One last intriguing note: in 2014, the Trojans averaged 35.8 points per game and allowed 25.2 points per game. My score predictions, when averaged out, weren’t far off — USC 36.7, opponents 24.4 — essentially giving the Trojans about a point of extra credit in either direction.

***

If you’re one of my football content readers, thanks for spending your time on my stories. I hope you’re looking forward to the 2015 season as much as I am. In the meantime, here’s one last prediction for this season:

Oregon 46, Ohio State 37

Leonard Williams takes the sword one last time in San Diego. Fight On in the NFL!

Leonard Williams takes the sword one last time. Fight On in the NFL!

Dec 03

Photo-A-Day 2013: Week 45

The week of Nov. 4-10 started quietly at home and office, but wrapped up with a four-day weekend in and around San Francisco as part of the annual USC Bay Area Weekender, as the Trojans faced the Cal Bears in Berkeley on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the images — and remember, to view any image at full size, simply click on it!

4-NOV-2013: Some autumnal decorating around the house.

4-NOV-2013: Some autumnal decorating around the house.

5-NOV-2013: Pretty much the best baked pasta shells ever.

5-NOV-2013: Pretty much the best baked pasta shells ever.

6-NOV-2013: When you stay at the office as late as I do sometimes, barren hallways and closed doors aren't that creepy.

6-NOV-2013: When you stay at the office as late as I do sometimes, barren hallways and closed doors aren’t that creepy.

7-NOV-2013: Columbus Avenue, San Francisco. Near sunset (via Instagram).

7-NOV-2013: Columbus Avenue, San Francisco. Near sunset (via Instagram).

8-NOV-2013: Stopped for a late afternoon coffee in San Francisco and got this image from my sidewalk seat.

8-NOV-2013: Stopped for a late afternoon coffee in San Francisco and got this image from my sidewalk seat.

9-NOV-2013: Buck Allen leads the band and fans after another USC Weekender win in Berkeley.

9-NOV-2013: Buck Allen leads the band and fans after another USC Weekender win in Berkeley.

10-NOV-2013: Glorious Sunday afternoon at San Francisco's Ferry Building.

10-NOV-2013: Glorious Sunday afternoon at San Francisco’s Ferry Building.

Dec 24

Final Review: Pac-12 Picking the Winners Recap

Not only was 2012 a rough year for my USC Trojans, but it also proved to be my worst season ever in the dozen I’ve been writing my Annual Picking the Winners Pac-12 Preview. My final record of 59-32 (.648) fell just below my final marks in 2002 (55-25, .688) and 2006 (51-25, .671). While the Trojans certainly played a pivotal role in my 2012 downturn, other surprises also hampered my efforts: other disappointments included Cal (picked at 7-5; finished 3-9) and Utah (picked at 9-3; finished 5-7), while surprises included UCLA (picked at 6-6; finished 9-4) and Oregon State (picked at 3-9; finished 9-3). Here’s a quick look back on the final weeks of Pac-12 action, centered around my preview, which appeared prior to the season on USCFootball.com.

Click here to recap my initial picks: Stanford Powers Its Way to Surprising Conference Crown

Week 10

UCLA's Johnathan Franklin continued his great 2012 campaign in the Bruins' destruction of Arizona

UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin continued his great 2012 campaign in the Bruins’ destruction of Arizona

Oregon State over Arizona State, 36-26 (picked at 16-10); Stanford over Colorado, 48-0 (picked at 41-23); UCLA over Arizona, 66-10 (picked at 23-13); Utah over Washington State, 49-6 (picked at 34-30):  Incredibly, I got an Oregon State pick right for one of the few times in 2012! In my other three wins, only Stanford’s walloping of Colorado was remotely close to my preseason pick, while UCLA and Utah put up surprisingly easy wins. The Bruins’ devastation of Arizona was incredibly complete and — at season’s end — was a signpost for a UCLA program that looks on the verge of becoming a more consistent presence in the conference race.

My two losses — Oregon’s 62-51 track-meet win at USC and Washington’s Friday night win at reeling Cal — were not overly surprising at this point. The Ducks were peaking heading into the Coliseum, while the Trojans were filled with self-doubt after their embarrassing loss at Arizona the week before, while the Bears, by this time, were well on their way to Coach Jeff Tedford’s eventual firing.

Week 11

Keith Price's 2012 regression didn't include this TD run vs. Utah.

Keith Price’s 2012 regression didn’t include this TD run vs. Utah.

Arizona over Colorado, 56-31 (picked at 38-17); USC over Arizona State, 38-17 (picked at 43-10); Oregon over California, 59-17 (picked at 31-24); Stanford over Oregon State, 27-23 (picked at 37-7); Washington over Utah, 34-15 (picked at 34-21): While three of the weeks winning picks were reasonable facsimiles of the final outcomes (Arizona, USC and Washington), Oregon came on in the second half — as usual — to blow away Cal and Mike Riley’s impressive 2012 Beaver squad came oh-so-close to winning at Stanford and putting themselves in position to play for a Pac-12 North title.

My only loss this week was — again — predictable by the time the game rolled around, as UCLA trounced Washington State in a not-as-close-as-the-score 44-36 win. I, like many, got a little wrapped up before the season in the idea that Mike Leach could turn Wazzu into a weekly threat much more quickly than it appears he will be able to.

Week 12

The Cardinal's OT upset in Eugene not only changed the Pac-12 dynamics, but the BCS title chase, as well.

The Cardinal’s OT upset in Eugene not only changed Pac-12 dynamics, but the BCS title chase, as well.

Arizona State over Washington State, 46-7 (picked at 31-27), Washington over Colorado, 38-3 (picked at 38-21): It was an unimpressive week, what can I say?

My 2-4 record for the week included USC’s first loss to UCLA in six years, 38-28 in Pasadena. Not only did the Trojans embarrass themselves in defeat, but the game may have also marked the final college snap for QB Matt Barkley, whose shoulder injury kept him out of the following week’s loss to Notre Dame (spoiler alert!) and has him questionable for next week’s Sun Bowl game against Georgia Tech. While Oregon State’s 62-14 whipping of Cal and Arizona’s 34-24 win over Utah counted as losses on my resume, neither was a shock at the time. What was a shock? The Stanford defense absolutely owning Oregon’s heretofore unstoppable offense in a 17-14 overtime win in Eugene — for all intents and purposes ending the Ducks’ three-year run atop the conference.

Weeks 13-14

Notre Dame finished an unexpected undefeated regular season against USC on Nov. 24.

Notre Dame finished an unexpected undefeated regular season against USC on Nov. 24.

Utah over Colorado, 42-35 (picked at 30-16); Stanford over UCLA, 35-17 (picked at 30-24), Nov. 24; Oregon over Oregon State, 48-24 (picked at 44-24); Oregon State over Nicholls State, 77-3 (picked at 45-10), Dec. 1 makeup of postponed Sept. 1 game: While the Beavers had a great season, they still don’t have the athleticism to match up with a Chip Kelly-coached Duck team. They did, however, get an opportunity to celebrate a good season by getting a makeup date with Nicholls State following that Civil War loss — and their celebration ended up with a 77-point performance. The Cardinal whipped UCLA in Pasadena in a game that most believe the Bruins didn’t go full speed in, between a little bit of a hangover after their win against USC and the logic of not wanting to travel to Eugene again for the Pac-12 title game.

Of course, when UCLA put up a much better performance the following week at Stanford in a heartbreaking 27-24 loss in that championship battle, many felt those beliefs confirmed. I’m counting the Pac-12 championship among my losses as — like most — I had a USC-Oregon tilt penciled in there before the season. Other losses in the final week of the regular season included the Trojans’ incredibly predictable home loss to No. 1 Notre Dame, Arizona State’s wholly unpredictable come-fr0m-behind win in Tucson to snag the Territorial Cup from Arizona, and Washington’s unforgivable fourth quarter/OT choke job in the Apple Cup in Pullman.

Here are the final Pac-12 standings with my preseason predictions in parentheses:

Pac-12 North

Stanford 11-2, 8-1 (10-2,7-2)

Oregon 11-1, 8-1 (11-1, 8-1)

Oregon State 9-3, 6-3 (3-9, 2-7)

Washington 7-5, 5-4 (7-5, 5-4)

California 3-9, 2-7 (7-5, 5-4)

Washington State 3-9, 1-8 (4-8, 2-7)

Pac-12 South

UCLA 9-4, 6-3 (6-6, 4-5)

USC 7-5, 5-4 (13-0, 9-0)

Arizona State 7-5, 5-4 (5-7, 3-6)

Arizona 7-5, 4-5 (5-7, 3-6)

Utah 5-7, 3-6 (9-3, 6-3)

Colorado 1-11, 1-8 (3-9, 0-9)