Jan 10

Recapping My 2014 USC/Pac-12 Coverage and Picks

Enjoying a USC rally at Quincy Market in Boston, a day before one of my worst picks of 2014.

Enjoying a USC rally in Boston, a day before one of my worst picks of 2014.

With Monday’s College Football Championship game marking the end of the 2014 season, last week I began to look back at some of the content I produced for USCFootball.com, the Scout Network website dedicated to wall-to-wall coverage of USC Trojans football. I’ve done in-season work for the site since 2000, through its three iterations: starting out as an independent start-up; transitioning to become part of the Rivals Network; and, just prior to this season, joining Scout.

This one’s for my loyal football content readers — especially the stat and result geeks. So, be forewarned!

If you’re a reader, you know that — for the 14th consecutive season — I produced my annual Pac-12 preview where I pick a winner and a score for each game played by a conference school, prior to the season. This year’s preview can be found here: 2014 Pac-12 “Picking the Winners” Game-by-Game Preview.

In 2014, I picked winners in 67 of the 92 Pac-12 games played (including Oregon’s win in the Pac-12 Championship game; I had them beating USC, rather than Arizona but it’s crazy what one completed Hail Mary can mean). That 67-25 mark means I predicted 72.8 percent of the games correctly, slightly off from the combined total of my prior 13 seasons: 74.6 percent. It represented a much steeper drop from 2013, when I posted my second-best season ever (81.3 percent), but was still far better than 2012 — my worst season to date (64.1 percent).

Colorado, working hard at justifying my season's picks for them.

Colorado worked hard to justify my 2014 picks.

Digging into the numbers, I found some intriguing notes and trends:

  • My four best records in selecting specific teams’ games included: Oregon (12-1); UCLA (10-2); Colorado (10-2); and Washington (10-3). In a way, you can kind of throw out UO and CU. I picked Oregon to win all 13, so their one loss (to Arizona) was, unsurprisingly, my only incorrect pick. Thanks Ducks! At the other end, I had Colorado winning four total games and one conference game. Turns out, they simply just lost two of the games I picked them to win to fade to a rough 2-10, 0-9 finish. The success with the Bruins and UW was a little more noteworthy. First, the Huskies: I selected their first seven games correctly before a loss to Arizona State ended that run. Two weeks later, UW lost at UCLA — one of my two incorrect Bruin choices. Finally, in August, I thought the Huskies might struggle in the Apple Cup at Pullman — but that was before Wazzu lost quarterback Connor Halliday against USC and limped to a tough finish. Before the season, I picked UW to finish the regular season at 9-4, 5-4; they finished 8-5, 4-5. Aside from the aforementioned defeat of Washington, my only other UCLA error was when the Bruins were shocked at home by Utah. That 10-2 mark — with one incorrect pick on each side of the docket — meant that my prediction for a 9-3, 6-3 UCLA regular season was dead on.
  • The only team that I whiffed on more than I got right in my preseason picks? Utah (5-7). Suffice it to say, I did not believe in the Utes prior to the season’s kickoff. I had them finishing 3-9, 1-8 and tied for last in the Pac-12 South with Colorado. Instead, Utah finished the regular season with an 8-4, 5-4 mark and impressive late wins at UCLA and at home against USC.
  • There was only one other conference team for which I didn’t pick a correct result in either seven or eight contests: Cal (9-3). The Golden Bears bounced back in a big way from a dismal 2013, falling just short of bowl eligibility at 5-7, 3-6 — including tough, close losses at Arizona (49-45 on a game-ending Hail Mary) and at home to UCLA (36-34) and BYU (42-35, in the closing game of the regular season). I picked against Cal in all three, helping my overall success.
  • The 8-4s and 7-5s. As for the rest of my picks, here’s how it broke down by team: Arizona (8-4); Oregon State (8-4); Stanford (8-4); USC (8-4);
    USC's win over Fresno State was one of eight Trojan games I picked correctly in my Pac-12 preview.

    Nelson Agholor for 6. USC’s win over Fresno State was one of eight Trojan games picked correctly in my Pac-12 preview.

    Arizona State (7-5); and Washington State (7-5). Among those teams’ overall records, I whiffed pretty clearly on Arizona (picked 6-6, 3-6; they finished 10-2, 7-2 prior to the championship game and bowl season), Stanford (picked 11-1, 8-1; finished 7-5, 5-4) and Washington State (picked 7-5, 4-5; finished 3-9, 2-7).

  • Eight best single game picks of 2014

    • Sept. 6: I picked Oregon over Michigan State by 17 — 38-21. The final margin: 19, in a 46-27 victory.
    • Sept. 13: I picked Arizona State over Colorado, 38-24. The actual final score? Yep, 38-24.
    • Sept. 27: I picked Cal to beat Colorado by a field goal in overtime (37-34). The result? A higher scoring game with the same outcome: Cal by a field goal in OT, 59-56.
    • Sept. 27: I picked Stanford to edge Washington, 20-16, just off from the real result: Stanford 20, Washington 13.
    • Sept. 27 (good week, huh?): I selected USC to defeat Oregon State by 22 (45-23). The Trojans won by 25 (35-10).
    • Sept. 27 (yep, again): I picked Washington State over Utah by three (38-35). The Cougs won, 28-27. Suffice it to say, with how both teams’ seasons went — and my acumen in picking them — this might be the most shocking of the “best” picks listed.
    • Oct. 11: Oregon beat UCLA, 42-30, in Pasadena. Prior to the season, I’d selected the Ducks as 44-35 victors.
    • Oct. 11: I selected Stanford to beat Washington State by 17 (41-24). The Cardinal did, in fact, beat the Cougars by 17 (34-17)
  • Eight worst single game picks of 2014

    • Sept. 20: Yep, I underestimated Utah — and probably gave good old Brady Hoke a tad too much credit. The pick: Michigan 35-23. The reality: Utah 26-10  — a 28-point differential.
    • Oct. 2: I lost one Oregon game all season — and it was a doozy. I picked the Ducks by 30 over Arizona, making the Wildcats’ 31-24 win my third worst point differential this season: 37. Guess I should have saved the 30-point win call for the conference title game.
    • Oct. 4: My miscalculation of the Cougars’ progress under Mike Leach resonated in a big way when Cal upended Wazzu 60-59. My preseason pick: Washington State, 52-24. Ugh.
    • Oct. 4 (yes, this weekend was the payback for the great Sept. 27): One of my two incorrect UCLA picks was almost as rough as that Oregon miscue above. I picked the Bruins to top Utah by 31. But the Utes had other ideas, winning 30-28.
    • Oct. 25: By the time this game happened, the outcome wasn’t much of a surprise. But, since I’d picked the Cougs (again) to beat Arizona by six, the Wildcats’ 22-point drubbing lands on this list.
    • Nov. 1: The pick: Oregon State 51, Cal 27. The reality: Cal 45, Oregon State 31. That’s right, this game’s No. 2 on my worst point differential chart at 38.
    • Nov. 15: Stanford looked to be a solid choice against the Utes prior to the season — as did many others. About a 31-point pick. So, of course, the Utes won by 3 in double OT.
    • Nov. 22: Saving the worst for last in a couple of ways! One of the few times I actually picked the Utes prior to the season — by a touchdown over Arizona — what do they do? How about go out and lose at home, 42-10? Sure, why not! Utah was my kryptonite in 2014, even when I picked them to win. In this one, they were responsible for my single worst point differential of the season: 39.

***

Adoree Jackson was still a blur, even to my best camera and lens, on his receiving TD in the Holiday Bowl.

Adoree Jackson was still a blur, even to my best camera and lens, on his receiving TD in the Holiday Bowl.

Additionally, I handle USCFootball.com‘s official weekly game and opponent previews throughout the season. The Trojans survived the final season of sanction-hampered personnel, finishing with a 9-4 mark (6-3 in the Pac-12 South, good for a second-place tie) — including big road wins at Stanford and Arizona, as well as a dominant victory over rival Notre Dame and a Holiday Bowl win over a game Nebraska squad in a thriller. “A thriller” became perhaps too familiar a description for many USC fans in 2014. Not only did USC hold off Stanford, Arizona and Nebraska in the final moments, but they were also victimized by those “thrills,” losing twice in the waning seconds — at home, on a final-play Hail Mary against Arizona State and at Utah on a Utes drive that was capped by a one-yard TD pass with eight seconds to play.

Those losses plus a truly baffling and unacceptable upset loss at Boston College in week three and a throttling at the hands of crosstown rival UCLA kept the Trojans’ season from being a “total success,” as contended by Coach Steve Sarkisian. However, given USC’s dwindling number of available scholarship players throughout the season, there is hope for the future as the Trojans begin to restock with their first full scholarship class since 2011 set to sign on Feb. 4. And if you believe what you’re reading on USCFootball.com, that class could be something else.

Here are links to each of my USC game previews for 2014:

August 30: (15) USC vs. Fresno State

My preview pick of the Trojans by 4 over the Cardinal was nearly dead on.

My preview pick of the Trojans by 4 over the Cardinal was nearly dead on.

September 6: (14) USC @ (13/10) Stanford

September 13: (9/10) USC @ Boston College

September 27: (18/22) USC vs. Oregon State

October 4: (16/20) USC vs. (24) Arizona State

October 11: USC @ (10/13) Arizona

October 18: (22/25) USC vs. Colorado

October 25: (20/21) USC @ (19) Utah

November 1: USC @Washington State

November 13: USC vs. California

November 22: (19/24) USC @ (9/11) UCLA

November 29: USC vs. Notre Dame

December 27: (24) USC vs. (25) Nebraska, Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Taking a look at my record with the picks in these week-by-week previews, I finished with eight correct and five incorrect — about right considering the Trojans’ topsy-turvy season.

The crowd reacts as, in the background, George Farmer scores USC's first TD against Notre Dame.

The crowd reacts as, in the background, George Farmer scores against Notre Dame.

Let’s take a look at the misses:

  • I wasn’t alone in thinking the then-No. 9 Trojans would roll at Boston College. That game is still one of the more baffling I’ve attended. USC jumped to a 17-6 lead and looked on its way to the expected blowout before just falling completely flat for about 35 minutes. Ugly.
  • Up next, USC’s embarrassing Hail Mary loss to ASU. Nuff said.
  • The following week, after such a ridiculous defeat, I picked Arizona to beat the Trojans in Tucson. The Wildcats were coming off their big win at Oregon and I expected the momentum on both teams’ sidelines — plus the home field — would be enough for Arizona to come out on top. I will tell you, a small courtyard condo complex in Cambridge, Mass., got an unexpected 1:45 a.m. wake-up call when Cats kicker Casey Skowron shanked an easy game-winning field goal attempt, giving the Trojans the win. I was staying there after attending a wedding in Boston the day before, and I kinda forgot my surroundings (and the reality of the Eastern time zone) for a minute.
  • USC gave a game to Utah. My kryptonite, I tell ya.
  • And, though I smartly picked the Bruins in my Pac-12 preview, I went with my heart in the game-week preview, picking the Trojans to win in Pasadena. Bad call.

The best two picks in the weekly previews: USC by four at Stanford (the Trojans won by 3); and the Trojans by 22 over Colorado (USC won by 28).

The worst two picks in these previews: Obviously, BC (34-point differential) and UCLA (24-point differential).

My closest calls on USC total points in weekly previews: 35 vs. Oregon State (exactly right, as USC scored 35); 42 at Washington State (44); 31 at Arizona (28); 24 at Utah (21).

My closest calls on USC points allowed in weekly previews: 30 vs. Cal (exactly right, as the Bears posted 30); 17 vs. Fresno State (13); and 19 at Utah (24).

One last intriguing note: in 2014, the Trojans averaged 35.8 points per game and allowed 25.2 points per game. My score predictions, when averaged out, weren’t far off — USC 36.7, opponents 24.4 — essentially giving the Trojans about a point of extra credit in either direction.

***

If you’re one of my football content readers, thanks for spending your time on my stories. I hope you’re looking forward to the 2015 season as much as I am. In the meantime, here’s one last prediction for this season:

Oregon 46, Ohio State 37

Leonard Williams takes the sword one last time in San Diego. Fight On in the NFL!

Leonard Williams takes the sword one last time. Fight On in the NFL!

Oct 26

Midseason Musings Around the Pac-12

We’ve essentially reached the midway point of the Pac-12 conference schedule. There have been plenty of highlights, plenty of pratfalls and a helluva lot of entertaining football. Before we turn the corner and head for home, let’s take a look – from top to bottom – at where we stand heading into Halloween weekend:

  • Just how good is Stanford? While many people mocked my pick of Stanford finishing the regular season and conference title game with a perfect 13-0 mark, it seems many of those same folks now suddenly realize the Cardinal have an incredibly generous schedule – the main reason for my choice. If Stanford passes what suddenly appears to be a real test this weekend at USC, all that really stands between them and hosting the inaugural championship game is a Nov. 12 date with Oregon in Palo Alto.
  • While Andrew Luck has maintained his edge in the Heisman Trophy race, it’s been the continuity David Shaw has brought to the program – toughness, an excellent rushing game, an attacking defense – that has the Cardinal in this position. It will be interesting to see how that translates without Luck in 2012. Will Stanford maintain its level or will it fall back to the conference’s lower division, where it has resided for most of the past 40 years.
  • Oregon’s offense continues to roll, even with LaMichael James and Darron Thomas missing games due to injury. A pair of freshmen, QB Bryan Bennett and RB/WR DeAnthony Thomas, look ready to carry Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense well into this decade. Whether that’s good for the conference in the long run will be decided by whether the Ducks can actually make a case for their style of football in a key non-conference game or two.
  • Another positive – it was refreshing to see the Ducks in what appeared to be actual football uniforms last Saturday in Colorado.

    Oregon dressed up as a football team last Saturday.

  • In the Pac-12 South, it appears the only thing between Arizona State and a Pac-12 title game appearance is disinterest. The Sun Devils’ only game remaining against a team with a record currently above .500 is their season-closer against Cal on Nov. 25. Prior to that, the schedule reads: Colorado (1-7), at UCLA (3-4), at Washington State (3-4), Arizona (2-5).
  • Unfortunately for ASU, their propensity for penalties, combined with Pac-12 officials’ general incompetence, does make the Devils ripe for an upset should any of those four games remain close late. Just ask ASU’s fans about some of the curious calls that happened in Eugene a couple weekends back.
  • USC and its fans are walking on air after the Trojans’ 31-17 drubbing of Notre Dame last weekend. Notre Dame and its fans seemed offended at Lane Kiffin’s insinuation last week that this game was the Irish’s “Super Bowl.” However, with the pomp and circumstance surrounding the game (first night game in 21 years, new helmet paint, rally towels, nearly two dozen key recruits on the sidelines, the East Coast media drooling over the possibility that ND could not only win but cover the ridiculous 9-point spread), it’s hard to see where Kiffin was wrong.

    Jawanza Starling’s third-quarter fumble return was the turning point in USC’s victory at Notre Dame.

  • It’s also hard to see where any of the Trojans who said the Irish quit on the game are wrong. Now, USC hosts Stanford on Saturday with a shot to ruin the Cardinal’s shot at a national title. It’s quite a tall task, even for a team that is unexpectedly 6-1 and just played its most complete game during the Kiffin regime. Nonetheless, it’s amusing to see ESPN Gameday back at the Coliseum even though the “Worldwide Leader” has done everything possible to play up the “death of USC” during the past 24 months.
  • Washington made its first appearance in the top-25 in almost a decade. Then, the Huskies immediately were embarrassed on national TV, 65-21, by Stanford – allowing a school-record 446 rushing yards to the Cardinal.
  • Still, despite the struggles of Nick Holt’s Husky defense, it’s hard to dispute the progress Washington has made this season. QB Keith Price has been spectacular, and an 8-win season is within reach – something that might have seemed a pipe dream  just two years ago.
  • Jeff Tedford’s Cal team is its usual Jekyll-and-Hyde self. The Bears could not have looked worse for six quarters after taking a 15-14 halftime lead into the locker room at Oregon on Oct. 6. In the next game and a half, Oregon and USC outscored Cal 59-9, and the Bears could do almost nothing right. Then, last Saturday, the Bears went to Salt Lake City and dominated Utah, 34-10.
  • Which Cal team will show up in the Rose Bowl Saturday?
  • The answer to that question will probably be decided in part by just how much UCLA is affected by its utterly embarrassing performance in a 48-12 loss at Arizona last week. Rumblings out of Westwood make it sound like the team is split and that Rick Neuheisel’s continued presence on the sideline is a key to the problems.
  • Of course, falling behind 42-7 to Arizona before halftime – that’s the same Arizona team that entered the game with a 1-5 record and an interim head coach after firing Mike Stoops – and then starting a bench-clearing brawl with two seconds to go in the half (yes, starting – Taylor Embree threw the first punch in a melee that ended with six Bruins and four Wildcats suspended) might be a fairly decent sign of a team that’s disinterested in its coach and the rest of its season.
  • If there’s been a bright spot for Oregon State in what’s been a very difficult season, it has to be the development of QB Sean Mannion. He was Pac-12 offensive player of the week last Saturday in the Beavers’ 44-24 whipping of Washington State.
  • Still, the Beavers’ losses to Sacramento State, BYU and UCLA have doomed them to consecutive bowl-free seasons – a difficult blast from the past for those in Corvallis who’ve grown used to post-season football in the past decade.
  • After starting 3-1 and dreaming of a bowl bid, Washington State has fallen back to earth in three straight losses, with the hammering by the Beavers seemingly resigning Wazzu to another losing season.
  • With Jeff Tuel and Marshall Loebbestal, Coach Paul Wulff reminds me of a fantasy football owner has two talented passers whom he can’t decide between – and then the one he picks to start in a given week either underperforms or gets injured.

    Uh oh, looks like no points from my QB this week. Fantasy sucks!

  • Well, Arizona certainly looked like they hooked up to the Juvenation Machine last week, didn’t they? But, at 2-5 (and 1-4 in the conference) the rest of 2012 is just about finding a way to build some sort of momentum going forward. And not every opponent is going to be as baffled about its identity as UCLA.
  • I guess Utah is finding out what playing the big boys every week – and suffering a series of debilitating injuries as you go – is all about. However, hearing calls for Kyle Whittingham’s head (as faint as they may be) is absolutely ridiculous. I fully expect that when Utah gets its bearings (and gets healthy), the Utes will be a factor in the South Division for years to come.
  • Colorado, well … hmm. Not exactly making a statement for how deep the Big 12 has been recently. And if Coach Jon Embree didn’t have enough to worry about, his son – previously mentioned UCLA wideout Taylor Embree – decided punching someone on the football field would be a bright idea. When it gets so bad that you’re tied to the acts of players on another team in your conference then go out and get stomped, 45-2, on your own field two days later, well … that’s 2011 Colorado Football. Here’s Colorado’s highlight from October: Cliff Harris goes 118 mph into a safety on a punt return.
  • Finally, this isn’t a Pac-12 related note. But, it is the best college football-related “separated at birth” I’ve come up with recently:
Boise State QB Kellen Moore

South Park, Colo., youth Jimmy Valmer

For more on Pac-12 football, the advertising industry and other events worthy of a mini-rant, send me a follow request on Twitter: @THrants

Sep 04

Week 1 Musings Around the Pac-12

After what much of the national college football media is seemingly celebrating as a rough opening week for the new Pac-12, here are a few thoughts:

  • There is much handwringing over USC’s second-half performance in a 19-17 win against Minnesota at the Coliseum. The Trojan offense, whether you want to blame scheme or execution (Lane Kiffin had no shame pointing the finger at his players), allowing what will likely be a subpar Golden Gopher defense to hold it to zero second-half points is simply unacceptable.
  • I’ll be seeing bubble screens in my sleep for weeks. Your team would be easy to defend, too, if what seemed like half of the plays were a sideways pass followed by crossed fingers that Robert Woods or Marqise Lee would make a freak athletic play to gain yards.
  • I feel badly for Minnesota’s fans, who are likely hopeful that they may have a decent team this season. I’m guessing by the time the Gophers are 1-6 or 2-7 in late October, they’ll feel otherwise.
  • Kudos to Matt Barkley and Woods (whose Twitter handle seems far from presumptuous after his 17-catch opener) for their record-setting performances. Let’s hope they get a little more help from their coaches and teammates on offense next week in the Pac-12 opener against Utah, also 1-0 after a similarly underwhelming win over Montana State in Norm Chow’s debut as offensive coordinator.
  • The new video board at the Coliseum is, to put it simply, fantastic. A bigger surprise: it actually worked without malfunction for the entire game.

The Coliseum's new videoboard may have been the best part of USC's season-opening win over Minnesota

  • Now if they can only fix the thermometer. It’s been 70 degrees in the Coliseum since at least 1991.
  • If people in L.A. are concerned that the Trojans needed a last-minute Torin Harris interception to hold off the Gophers, what are people in Seattle thinking after UW needed a last-minute Desmond Trufant interception to beat defending FCS champ Eastern Washington, 30-27, in Seattle? The Huskies gave up 473 passing yards to the Eagles. Up next: pass-happy Hawaii, which used a surprising running attack to whip new Pac-12 member Colorado, 34-17, last night.
  • What’s the name of the QB who engineered Eastern Washington’s near upset, you ask? Well, it’s Bo Levi Mitchell, of course. No, really, it is. His nickname: Gunslinger.
  • Oregon’s Chip Kelly is quickly becoming the anti-Pete Carroll. In his time at USC, Carroll’s teams became known for not showing up once or twice a year for apparently inconsequential games, but always showing up on the big stage. USC’s lone loss in the Carroll Era in what one would consider a “big game” came with 19 seconds left in one of the greatest college football games ever played. Kelly’s Ducks, on the other hand laid their latest egg on a big stage in Dallas, being run around, over and through by a well-prepared – and simply faster and more athletic – LSU team. That’s four shots on a big stage, against a big-time opponent with time to prepare for the Ducks “revolutionary” attack. And that’s four losses – the 2009 opener at Boise State, the 2010 Rose Bowl vs. Ohio State, the BCS title game against Auburn and now LSU. And, worse, only the defeat by Auburn in the BCS title game in January avoids the tag of “embarrassing.”
  • According to reports from friend and Oregon alum Aaron Cooper, LSU fans on the scene in Dallas once again lived down to their national image. I can only imagine what it must’ve been like to attend the 2005 Capital One Bowl, when LSU faced Iowa – Hawkeye fans being the worst I’ve ever had to deal with at any college football game, until USC dropped the hammer on them in the 2003 Orange Bowl. I’m happy the world survived the possible meltdown of rancor and stupidity a meeting of those two fan bases could cause.
  • Arizona State’s defense looked predictably vicious in a decimation of FCS team UC Davis. If the Devils can keep from suffering any more injuries – they’ve really been snakebitten – that defense can keep them around against just about every team on their schedule.
  • Uh-oh: Is Oregon State back? And by back, I mean the futile Oregon State we all grew to know during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. An overtime loss to Sacramento State – an FCS rival of none other than UC Davis – does not bode well. Nor does this week’s trip to defending Big-10 champion Wisconsin, which looked lethal in their Thursday night opener against UNLV.
  • Apparently only 31,000 folks showed up at Candlestick Park to watch Cal beat Fresno State on Saturday night. And the AP report circulating about the game almost gleefully pointed out that Fresno fans outnumbered those from across the bay. No word on whether former Bear and Bulldog running back Tracy Slocum (or his bottom bitch) was in the house.
  • Jeff Tuel’s fractured clavicle may spell the end of Paul Wulff’s brief tenure at Wazzu. The Cougars were looking to the junior quarterback to team with stud sophomore receiver Marquess Wilson in an effort to break a 5-32 run the past three seasons. Though WSU predictably hammered Idaho State, the loss of Tuel cannot be understated looking ahead.
  • Speaking of coaches whose tenures may soon be over, UCLA’s defense was overmatched (again) in its opening loss to Houston. Though the Bruin offense had a big day – even with the loss of QB Kevin Prince to a concussion – UCLA’s defense resembled the embarrassing mess it was for much of 2010. And, by embarrassing, I mean watch this. The road to six wins and a bowl berth – likely the bare minimum that would keep Rick Neuheisel on the job in Westwood – just got that much longer.

For more on Pac-12 football, the advertising industry and other events worthy of a mini-rant, send me a follow request on Twitter: @thrants